聯準會升息的強烈訊號

《經濟學人》認為，聯準會12月底升息的倒數計時器已經在滴答了。

蔡曜蓮

國際總經

達志

985期

2015-11-05 09:43

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10月底，美國聯準會會議落幕，緩升息決議一如預期。不過，綜觀新聞稿，除較前次會議結論剔除「國際環境抑制經濟情勢」一句，並對家計支出與投資呈現樂觀態度，還直接點名下次會議將進行升息評估；市場普遍解讀，升息已經不只是「狼來了」而已⋯⋯。看看這份被解讀為「鷹派」的新聞稿怎麼說。

Household spending and business fixed investment have been increasing at solid rates in recent months, and the housing sector has improved further; … the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of declines in energy and import prices dissipate…. In determining whether it will be appropriate to raise the target range at its next meeting, the Committee will assess progress toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.

近幾月，家庭支出與企業固定投資都以穩定速率持續增加，房地產部門的改善更是顯著；⋯⋯委員會預期隨著就業市場加速改善，通膨率將在中期逐漸升高至２％，同時影響能源與進口價格的短期因素將逐步消失。⋯⋯為了決定下次會議提高利率目標區間是否合適，委員會將評估就業率達到最高水準、通膨率達到２％目標的進度狀況。

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